Some Bitcoin traders are turning down, why is $9,500 a problem?
Some Bitcoin Traders Turn Downward, Why $9,500 Is a Problem?
In the last 48 hours, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased from $9,160 to $9,584. Despite the 4.6% increase, some traders‘ sentiment is turning bearish.
According to several technical analysts, the market structure of Bitcoin is still slightly bearish. At longer intervals, $9,500 could be a technically declining high. The term „falling high“ is used when the recent BTC peak is lower than previous highs.
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On June 3, June 10, June 22 and July 22, BTC reached $ 10,473, $ 10,180, $ 9,794 and $ 9,584, respectively. Each peak is lower than the previous ones, creating a formation of decreasing peaks.
The reasons for the short-term bearish outlook at Bitcoin
Some traders are bearish at Bitcoin for two main reasons, namely the falling high structure and the falling volume.
Cryptcoin trader Zoran Kole, for example, said that a bearish market structure in a higher time frame remains intact. On the daily chart, four consecutive lower highs indicate a potentially weak consolidation phase. He wrote:
„The long-term bear market structure remains intact. A declining potential high should not be used as an override for a swing position unless this declining high is confirmed by a declining low. Waiting patiently for the 95xx sweep to be completed Looking to sell 9530-9580. Clear invalidation above 97/98 (break in market structure)“.
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A potential lower high at a higher time frame for Bitcoin
Meanwhile, a trader known by the pseudonym Crypto ISO suggested that the market might see a downturn if BTC gets a falling maximum. To confirm this, BTC is expected to fall below $9,500. The trader commented:
„If this is the maximum decline, it will be difficult for many people. Whoever understands the structure of the market will understand.
The DonAlt trader also explained that, to confirm a short term downward trend, ideally BTC should fall below $9,300. If BTC remains above $9,500, the short term market outlook may weaken:
„If the price closes above the red line ($9,300) today, I may reconsider my short-term bearish outlook (the medium-term bearish outlook remains). If the price closes below today, I will consider shorting more aggressively first towards the green line ($8,500) and then towards the green area (~ $7,000)“.
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Bullish Variables for BTC
In addition to the technical parameters and market structures, there are more fundamental factors that support a bullish outlook for Bitcoin .
For example, the BTC hash rate remains resilient, so the mining ecosystem is healthy. Reduced selling pressure from miners, coupled with falling revenues from exchanges, suggests that Bitcoin Profit may be witnessing an upward trend.
Data from Binance Futures shows that most of the „top“ traders on the platform remain primarily at Bitcoin. In contrast, more than 50% of traders fall short on alternative large-cap cryptosystems such as Ether (ETH) and XRP.
Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor, commented on July 23 that Bitcoin could outperform gold, which has caused a strong rally in recent weeks. And he said:
„The other bet is that Bitcoin will probably beat gold as well. The cross of bitcoin and gold looks powerful but it hasn’t happened yet.“
It remains to be seen whether the short-term bear market structure will cause a reversal, or whether the bullish fundamentals will offset the risk.